CD&V leave the other parties far behind

The Flemish Christian democrats of CD&V come out of the last poll by the VRT and De Standaard as the biggest party in Flanders, hands down. Further the political landscape seems to have become more fragmented. The fight for second party in Flanders is still wide open. The 'smaller parties ' such as the Flemish nationalist/separatist party N-VA and the right wing liberal Lijst Dedecker look set to gain.
CD&V is the only party in Flanders that scores higher than 20%. With 22.4%, the Flemish Christian democrats leave the other parties far behind in a very fragmented political landscape. The fight for second place is still wide open on 7 June. Contending are: far right Vlaams Belang, Flemish socialists (SP.A) and the Flemish liberal Open VLD party. N-VA and Lijst Dedecker look like potential candidates for the second spot as well.
Open VLD drops a bit compared to the last poll with 16.7% of the vote or a loss of 3.3% compared to the last Flemish regional elections in 2004.

The SP.A gets 14.3% of the vote- about status quo compared with the last poll. But in the last regional elections the Flemish socialists got 19.9% of the vote, significantly more than the prognosis according to the poll (-4.6%). The party does jump over Vlaams Belang however. During the last poll Vlaams Belang scored 16.2%, but in the last poll the far right party settles back to just 14%, an absolute low. Compared to the Flemish elections of 2004 Vlaams Belang loses 10.3%.

Many Vlaams Belang votes are going to N-VA and that is one of the reasons for the considerable surge in support for the Flemish nationalists. In the last poll the N-VA only had 7.3% of the electorate, now it easily gets 10%. Many protest voters that only had Vlaams Belang to vote for in the past, seem to have found their way to the party of Bart De Wever (chairman of the N-VA), who scores high personally as well.

Lijst Dedecker does well in the latest poll as well: the party climbs from 10.5% to 11.7%. That is 5.1% better than it did in the federal elections in 2007.

The Flemish green party Groen! drops slightly from 9.2% to 8.3%. Compared to the Flemish elections in 2004 this is a slight win of 0.7%. The Socialist-Liberal Party or SLP looks set to fall short of the electoral threshold of 5%. In the last poll the party had a glimmer of hope with 1.9%, but in the latest poll it falls back to just 1%.

Cartel rupture results in gains for CD&V and N-VA

In 2004 (and 2007) the CD&V were together in a cartel with N-VA. For Sunday's election they are both on their own lists. For both parties the poll shows that ending the cartel was a good thing. Adding up both of their results separately they do better than they have ever done together.

CD&V + Open VLD + ...?

The figures from this poll give three clear coalition possibilities: CD&V and Open VLD could chose between three possible partners: N-VA, SP.A or Lijst Dedecker. Mathematically speaking a coalition could also be possible with Vlaams Belang, but the 'cordon sanitaire' against this party excludes this possibility.
The poll was taken a week before the elections. It is a random picture with a margin of error of 2 to 2.5 percent.