The N-VA could become the biggest political player in Flanders, with as much as 25.2 percent of the votes. The N-VA can apparently draw a profit from three years' stalemate under the Flemish Christian democrats of Yves Leterme. He failed to fulfil his promise to split the Brussels Halle Vilvoorde constituency, something N-VA party head Bart De Wever seems determined to do.
N-VA traditionally has strong Flemish demands for more Flemish powers and many fear that if Bart De Wever would have it his way, the country will eventually be split.
If N-VA would become Belgium's biggest political party in the upcoming federal elections on 13 June, Bart De Wever is in pole position to become the new Belgian PM, a scenario that fills the Francophones in Brussels and Wallonia with fear and horror at the same time.
It could also make the upcoming coalition talks after the elections more complicated than they already were under Yves Leterme.
N-VA overtakes CD&V
The poll was carried out between 21 May and 1 June. 1,021 Flemings participated in the poll, including those living in the constituency BHV.
The N-VA would make the biggest jump (+11,9 percent compared to last year's Flemish elections, photo), thus overtaking the Christian democrats of CD&V as the Flemish number one party. CD&V would take 19 percent of the votes (-4.2 percent).
The Flemish liberals of Open VLD and the socialists of SP.A are almost equally balanced with just under 14 percent of the Flemish votes. They both lose over 1 percent compared to last year.
The extreme right Vlaams Belang follows in fifth position with 11.5 percent of the votes and loses almost 4 percent compared to last year's Flemish elections.
Groen! makes a little progress and now has 8.2 percent, the liberals of LDD (Jean-Marie Dedecker) can count on 6.6 percent. This would mean that LDD would pass the election threshold of 5 percent. That's the minimum of votes a party should receive to gain access to the federal parliament.
27 percent still undecided
According to analysts, CD&V would maintain 62 percent of its 2009 voters, but at the same it loses 21 percent of its electorate to its former cartel partner N-VA. Vlaams Belang would lose 17 percent of its voters to the Flemish nationalists.
27 percent of the respondents said that they are still uncertain about their choice. The number of undecided voters is high for parties like Groen! (32 percent), LDD (31 percent), CD&V (27 percent) and Open VLD (27 percent). N-VA voters seem more determined: only 11 percent is undecided.