Simulations are there to be taken with a pinch of salt, but if those created by the Leuven professor of international economy are true Belgium could be in for a rough ride.
Higher import duties on goods entering the US could cost 1,200 jobs in Belgium. Under the simulation this figure rises to 5,000 jobs under the "worst-case scenario" De Tijd writes. Higher import duties in the US could cut Belgian growth by between 0,1% and 0,42%.
At present the US levies an average import duty of 2,1% on goods originating in the EU. Mr Trump has spoken of increasing this to 5%. Import tariffs can be hiked to 15% for a short period. That would then result in the worst-case scenario.
Under the simulation 1,200 Belgian jobs will be lost if the US increases its import tariffs to 5% as that would cut Belgian exports to the US by 5.7%.
Belgium annually exports some 7.6 billion euros' worth of goods to the US keeping 54,000 people in work. This represents 1.2% of the Belgian workforce.