Nationalists twice as big as nearest rivals, socialists drop under 10%

If the federal elections were held now the Flemish nationalist party N-VA would get more than 32% of the votes in Flanders. Meanwhile, the largest Flemish opposition party in the Federal Parliament, the socialists, polls less than 10%. That’s according to a new poll carried out on behalf of the VRT, the Francophone public broadcaster RTBF and the daily newspapers ‘De Standaard’ and La Libre. The polling agency TNS KANTAR compiled the telephone poll based on the responses of 1,033 people in Flanders that are eligible to vote. The poll was carried out between 26 February and 17 March and has a margin of error of 3.1%.

Around a year and two months from the European, federal and regional elections the Flemish nationalists seem on course to meet there aim of obtaining 30% of the popular vote.

Our previous polls of voting intentions for the federal elections saw N-VA fall short of this. However, this time around the party polls 32.4%, the same score as at the previous federal elections in May 2014.

This is almost double the percentage recorded for the party that is second in our poll, the Christian democrats. 16.4% of the Flemings polled said that they would vote Christian democrat if federal elections were held today. This is more than 2% down on the party’s score in 2014.

The other Flemish party in the federal coalition, the Flemish liberal party Open VLD is third with 14.7%. This is just under 1% less that the party’s result at the last federal elections in May 2014.

Good news for the greens, dire news for the socialists

The Flemish greens continue to do well in the polls. This time around 13.8% of the Flemings that responded to our poll said that they would vote green. This is more than 5% higher than the party’s score at the last federal elections.

It’s a very different story for the socialists. The Flemish socialist party SP.A gained the support of just 9.5% of those that took part in our poll. This is 4.5% down on the result the party obtained at the last federal elections.

The extreme right Vlaams Belang polled 7.5%, 1.7% more than at the last federal elections. At the other end of the political spectrum the far-left PVDA polled 4.9%, just short of the 5% threshold required to obtain seats.

Majority has confidence in the Federal Government

55% of the Flemings that took part in our poll said that they have confidence in the Federal Government.

This is slightly up on our last poll. Meanwhile, Belgium’s Francophone liberal Prime Minister enjoys the confidence of 72%. This is far higher than his Francophone socialist predecessor Elio Di Rupo.

Meanwhile, 63% of Flemings say that they have confidence in Geert Bourgeois’ Flemish Government. Mr Bourgeois himself enjoys the confidence of 59% of the Flemings that took part in our poll. This is much less than his predecessor Kris Peeters that enjoyed at 73% confidence rating.